Empire Energy’s gas fracking fantasies

Strike 1 – Obsolete LNG forecasts used to woo investors

Empire Energy has been under increased scrutiny after Market Forces filed a complaint to the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) on 29 May, alleging that the gas fracking company engaged in potentially misleading and deceptive conduct in a recent capital raise presentation for investors.

Empire Energy is currently developing its Carpentaria pilot fracking project in the Beetaloo Basin with plans to radically expand operations and focus efforts to export gas to Asia from 2028.

During the capital raise, Empire published a presentation for potential investors detailing the company’s plans in Beetaloo, including stages and timelines to begin exporting gas. In the presentation the company pointed to information taken from a 2023 and 2024 industry model (developed by oil and gas multinational, Shell) that forecast a global LNG supply shortfall starting in 2027 – conveniently one year before Empire plans to start its commercial exports of fracked gas to countries in Asia.

Subsequent modeling produced by Shell in 2025 however, predicts that the future supply gap that Empire is hoping to exploit isn’t likely to occur until much later – 2033 in Shell’s latest assessment. That would mean Empire would be trying to sell LNG into a market that already has more than enough gas for five years after starting to export. For a junior prospecting gas company like Empire, that five years in a low-price market could be the difference between being commercially successful or potentially crumbling to pieces like the Death Star.

Market Forces Analyst and Campaigner Brett Morgan attended Empire Energy’s 2025 annual general meeting (AGM) and asked why the company chose to cite a graph from the outdated 2023 Shell LNG outlook in its recent capital raise presentation instead of the most recent version from 2025.

Empire’s CEO, Mr Underwood who has worked in the industry for decades, said he had only learned on the morning of the AGM that Shell had published a 2025 version of the outlook and believed that Empire had used the 2024 model. Market Forces has confirmed that the graph in the presentation was in fact from 2023.

Following the ASIC complaint, and exchange at the AGM, Empire Energy re-issued its capital raise presentation on the 4th of June, advising investors, “not to rely on the Forward-Looking Statements in the Original Presentation”

This is a significant development.

Market Forces policy analyst and campaigner, Morgan Pickett was quoted in the Australian following the revelation:

“Empire Energy has made an extraordinary admission that it used outdated industry forecasts overstating gas demand to sell the viability of its Beetaloo fracking plans to raise capital from investors.”

The article also quoted Mr Underwood/Empire’s CEO, “Following a complaint from [Market Forces] to ASIC, Empire worked proactively with ASIC to amend the one slide in the presentation with updated information” (emphasis added).

That “one slide” which contained forward looking statements that investors should “not rely on” was seemingly a big enough deal that the company felt it had to “work with” the corporate regulator to rectify the fault, and apologetically re-issue the presentation on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).

That one slide which told investors there will be a market for the gas Empire wants to sell overseas in the next few years has now been replaced with a slide that effectively says – it might be quite a while before selling that gas makes any commercial sense.

And that’s modeling from a multinational gas company wanting to paint the most optimistic picture of a future for selling gas. Shell’s LNG demand forecasts for 2040 are more than triple (233% higher) than that of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 1.5°C scenario.

In a presentation designed to sell the viability of its business and asking for investors’ money – this is probably the one slide investors would expect the company to get right. It did not..

Strike 2 – Still unable to sell gas

Empire has faced years of opposition from Traditional Owners whose country has been severely impacted by the company’s operations such as failure to report cultural artefacts and failure to adequately consult with Traditional Owners.

In a recent Guardian exclusive How an obscure consultancy firm is helping fracking companies influence traditional owners, leaked documents claim that a consultancy firm hired by Empire Energy promised Traditional Owners private deals, gathered signatures and hired land council members to smooth the way for Empire’s gas sales. The article details extremely serious allegations that may be subject to further investigations.

Traditional Owner William John is quoted saying “They said anything I want they would do: paying me money; getting me [a] vehicle to go visit my land, fuel, money, whatever… They talked about the gas, getting the money out of the gas… I’d like someone to help stop what they’re doing.”

The Nurrdalinji Aboriginal Corporation, representing native title holders from the Beetaloo Basin chaired by Djingili elder Samuel Sandy, say that proper consultation for Empire’s latest Environmental Management Plan did not occur, that consent for Empire’s latest plans to frack and sell gas has not been provided, and that “[Empire’s] projects are dangerous and cannot be trusted.”

This lack of trust and social license is an issue that has plagued the viability of Empire’s fracking plans, and was a focus of investors in May.

During the AGM, Mr Underwood informed shareholders that Empire is still working towards securing Traditional Owner consent to amend the exploration agreement to allow the sale of gas. Without this consent, Empire is unable to sell Beetaloo gas.

Empire has been attempting to secure this agreement with Traditional Owners since at least 2023, consistently saying that “consultations are well advanced” and indicating that an agreement is just on the horizon. But like a mirage, nothing has yet materialised in reality, and this should be a big red flag for investors.

Having the ability to sell gas is pretty important if your sole business is to extract and sell gas.

At the AGM the company was pressed on whether it has any contingency plans if consent is not secured. Mr Underwood refused to provide any assurances that the company has a plan B, saying that he is “not going to speculate on what we may or may not do in the future… but we have lots of acreage across the basin, we would have to consider that at the time.”

Strike 3 – ‘Water trigger’ could trigger the end of an Empire

Another dark cloud hanging over Empire’s plans is the potential that the development could be halted if there is deemed to be a serious impact to water. Given Empire’s track record, and the fact that its Beetaloo operations sit above the Great Artesian Basin, there is a very real risk that Empire would have to stop fracking.

Despite Northern Territory government approval, Wuyaliya elders have called for federal intervention and for the “water trigger” to be pulled which would result in an independent body assessing the development’s risk to vital water systems. If this were to happen, it could mean further delays to Empire’s plans, stricter conditions placed on operations, or even blocking the development from going ahead.

At the AGM Mr Underwood stated that the federal government’s Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment, and Water has deemed the impact to water as insignificant at this stage, but admitted “there may be the potential for that significant impact” to occur as its activities grow.

Lock the Gate has been monitoring Empire Energy’s conduct in Beetaloo for many years, publishing that the company has committed 23 environmental and compliance breaches or reportable incidents since 2020 (see publications from 2025 and 2024), many of which involve water contamination. This is all from preliminary pilot wells – it is hard to predict how many impacts or breaches could occur when Empire attempts to scale its operations to the enormous extent that it is planning.

The water trigger being pulled is a very real possibility that hangs over the viability of Empire’s fracking plans.

Strike 4 – Follow the money, it may dry up soon

A prominent theme of Empire Energy’s AGM was the critical role of Macquarie Bank in Beetaloo.

Macquarie has been a substantial shareholder of Empire Energy for some time, and banker for the past 15 years. As recently as November 2024, Macquarie put together a $65 million financing package explicitly for Empire Energy’s exploratory gas fracking operations in the Beetaloo Basin. That’s over one third of the value of the entire company. Macquarie is also a funder of the other major fracking company in the Beetaloo Basin, Tamboran Resources. In December 2024 Macquarie provided the company a $35 million loan to “support [Tamborans’s] ongoing development activities,” all of which are focused on exploiting Beetaloo gas.

At Empire’s AGM, shareholders voted in favour of issuing 50 million share options to Macquarie Bank, adding to Macquarie’s already sizable interest in the company. Macquarie already owns 66 million shares in Empire.

This direct interest in prospecting gas companies working to frack what could be one of the largest gas basins in Australia to 2070 is at direct odds with Macquarie’s claimed support to the goals of the Paris Agreement and commitment to align financing to support net zero emissions by 2050. The science is clear, there can be no new fossil fuel projects for the world to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

Macquarie’s support for Beetaloo also runs counter to its peers in the finance industry and the bank’s own statements regarding its use of climate transition plans.

In recent years the big four Australian banks have made exclusions on direct finance for new oil and gas projects. Macquarie has no such policy. All big four banks have committed to requiring ‘climate transition plans’ from their oil and gas producing clients by October 2025 at the latest, a commitment that will likely see them dropping exposure to companies expanding oil and gas. Australia’s largest bank, Commonwealth Bank, has already ended financial support for oil and gas companies that are not compatible with a safe climate.

In Macquarie’s 2025 Sustainability report, the financial institution stated that its ‘recent focus area’ has been on the “continued uplift to our client transition plan assessment approach”.

The statements made by Empire CEO, Alex Underwood, at the AGM demonstrate however that Macquarie has not assessed the transition plan of Empire Energy – not that Empire has one, or would ever be able to produce one while fracking Beetaloo.

When asked by a shareholder if Macquarie has “put any environmental restrictions or climate change clauses on the support?” Mr Underwood stated, “In relation to our loans … there are no specific clauses around that.”

Mr Underwood also commented that, “[Macquarie] are the predominant financier of oil and gas projects in the Northern Territory. They’re supporting us and a number of other companies.” “Macquarie has been with us through thick and thin, and they continue to do so,” also remarking that, “their support has been critical.”

Macquarie will come under significant scrutiny for its blatant disregard for its climate commitments and representations that it assesses the climate transition plans of its clients. Any canny investors will see that the days of Macquarie propping up Empire’s Beetaloo operations are limited. For a company already trying to cut costs by sourcing second hand equipment and pursuing an undertaking that is exceedingly capital intensive, investors will be worried about the serious stranded asset and stranded capital risk this poses.